WK 3 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 3 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
70Games modeled
30Edges badged
40Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Friday, Sep 12
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colgate @ Syracuse7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 66.5 | 62.3 | -4.2UNDER |
Saturday, Sep 13
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo @ Kent State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.8 | 52.4 | +3.7OVER |
| Central Michigan @ Michigan12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 42.0 | 46.4 | +4.4OVER |
| Oklahoma @ Temple12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 48.5 | -3.0UNDER |
| Youngstown State @ Michigan State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 56.0 | +3.5OVER |
| Pittsburgh @ West Virginia3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.8 | 54.0 | -3.8UNDER |
| SMU @ Missouri State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 55.1 | -6.4UNDER |
| Northwestern State @ Cincinnati3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 59.3 | +6.3OVER |
| Washington State @ North Texas3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.3 | 53.6 | -4.7UNDER |
| Villanova @ Penn State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 58.9 | +3.4OVER |
| Oregon State @ Texas Tech3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 64.9 | +4.4OVER |
| Iowa State @ Arkansas State4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 58.6 | +3.6OVER |
| South Florida @ Miami4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 57.5 | +3.0OVER |
| Middle Tennessee @ Nevada5:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 54.4 | +8.9OVER |
| Monmouth @ Charlotte6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 67.5 | 57.6 | -9.9UNDER |
| Alcorn State @ Mississippi State6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 57.0 | +4.5OVER |
| Merrimack @ Kennesaw State6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 48.6 | +4.1OVER |
| Arkansas @ Ole Miss7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 62.0 | 57.7 | -4.3UNDER |
| Western Michigan @ Illinois7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 55.1 | +3.6OVER |
| Murray State @ Georgia State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.5 | 58.6 | -4.9UNDER |
| App State @ Southern Miss7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 56.6 | +4.1OVER |
| Texas A&M @ Notre Dame7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 54.7 | +5.2OVER |
| New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 42.5 | 47.1 | +4.6OVER |
| Florida @ LSU7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 49.2 | -5.3UNDER |
| Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 53.7 | +6.2OVER |
| Navy @ Tulsa8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 56.9 | +3.1OVER |
| Abilene Christian @ TCU8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 59.9 | +3.4OVER |
| Akron @ UAB8:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 59.3 | +6.3OVER |
| Southern @ Fresno State10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 51.6 | +3.1OVER |
| Portland State @ Hawai'i11:59 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 59.1 | +6.1OVER |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.