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WK 8 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED SAT 11:04 AM ET

Week 8 · 2026 season

New Mexico State @ Sam Houston

OVER 45.25 · LEAN win. The full grades are below.

The verdict

WED, OCT 21 · FINAL · ELLIOTT T. BOWERS STADIUM
New Mexico State2-459%
Sam Houston1-541%
NMSUNATL RANKSHSU
127th
Model Overall
137th
132nd
Model Offense
133rd
88th
Model Defense
136th
1.2
Pace
-2.8
24%
Returning PPA
58%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total47.5
Model total53.7
OVER 45.25 · LEAN WIN

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: New Mexico State -2.5 · No signal

-4-3-2Open11:04 AMTue11:03 AMWed11:04 AMThuNo dataFriNo dataSatNo data
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Wed, Oct 21, 11:04:05 AM ET

New Mexico State line
-2.5
Producer tier
No signal
  • Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET; New Mexico State line -2.5; producer tier EDGE
  • Tue, Oct 20, 11:03:15 AM ET; New Mexico State line -3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Oct 21, 11:04:05 AM ET; New Mexico State line -2.5; producer tier No signal
  • Thu: no capture.
  • Fri: no capture.
  • Sat: no capture.

RATINGS AS OF: NMSU wk 8 · SHSU wk 8

Model margin
Sam Houston by 0.73
Opening line
New Mexico State -2.5
Latest line
New Mexico State -3
Close total
46.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

NMSU30
FINALElliott T. Bowers Stadium
SHSU24
  • WinNew Mexico StateWIN HIT
  • TotalOVER 45.25 · LEANLEAN HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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