NEW MEXICO STATE +16.5 · EDGE win; OVER 46 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, NOV 7 · FINAL · AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUM
Liberty7-190%
New Mexico State3-510%
LIBNATL RANKNMSU
121st
Model Overall
127th
81st
Model Offense
132nd
134th
Model Defense
88th
-1.7
Pace
1.2
38%
Returning PPA
24%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total47.3
Model total49.1
NEW MEXICO STATE +16.5 · EDGE WINOVER 46 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Liberty -16.5 · EDGE
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Fri, Nov 6, 11:04:00 AM ET
Liberty line
-16.5
Producer tier
EDGE
Tue, Nov 3, 11:03:35 AM ET; Liberty line -14.75; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Nov 3, 11:03:35 AM ET; Liberty line -16.75; producer tier No signal
Wed: no capture.
Thu, Nov 5, 11:03:36 AM ET; Liberty line -16.5; producer tier EDGE
Fri, Nov 6, 11:04:00 AM ET; Liberty line -16.5; producer tier EDGE
Sat: no capture.
RATINGS AS OF: LIB wk 10 · NMSU wk 10
Model margin
Liberty by 11.98
Opening line
Liberty -14.75
Latest line
Liberty -15.25
Close total
46.3
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
LIB30
FINALAggie Memorial Stadium
NMSU14
WinLibertyWIN HIT
ATSNEW MEXICO STATE +16.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
TotalOVER 46 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
