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WK 5 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:02 AM ET

Week 5 · 2026 season

Arkansas State @ Louisiana

The final score and published grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · CAJUN FIELD
Arkansas State2-239%
Louisiana3-161%
ARSTNATL RANKUL
122nd
Model Overall
126th
127th
Model Offense
121st
94th
Model Defense
113th
3.7
Pace
-1.5
30%
Returning PPA
92%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total48.3
Model total47.5

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Arkansas State +6.25 · No signal

+4+5+6+7Open11:02 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:03 AMSat11:05 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET

Arkansas State line
+6.25
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Arkansas State line +5.25; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Arkansas State line +6.5; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; Arkansas State line +6.5; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; Arkansas State line +6.5; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; Arkansas State line +6.5; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; Arkansas State line +6.25; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: ARST wk 5 · UL wk 5

Model margin
Louisiana by 6.53
Opening line
Arkansas State +5.25
Latest line
Arkansas State +5.25
Close total
49.0

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

ARST20
FINALCajun Field
UL23
  • WinLouisianaWIN HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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