BUFFALO +12.75 · LEAN win; OVER 46.75 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · UB STADIUM
Western Michigan2-277%
Buffalo2-223%
WMUNATL RANKBUF
64th
Model Overall
111th
93rd
Model Offense
125th
37th
Model Defense
77th
-3.0
Pace
0.6
100%
Returning PPA
-1%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total50.0
Model total50.6
BUFFALO +12.75 · LEAN WINOVER 46.75 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Western Michigan -12.75 · LEAN
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET
Western Michigan line
-12.75
Producer tier
LEAN
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Western Michigan line -15.75; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Western Michigan line -13.5; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; Western Michigan line -13.5; producer tier No signal
Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; Western Michigan line -13.75; producer tier No signal
Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; Western Michigan line -13.75; producer tier No signal
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; Western Michigan line -12.75; producer tier LEAN
RATINGS AS OF: WMU wk 5 · BUF wk 5
Model margin
Western Michigan by 2.86
Opening line
Western Michigan -15.75
Latest line
Western Michigan -13.25
Close total
46.3
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
WMU20
FINALUB Stadium
BUF17
WinWestern MichiganWIN HIT
ATSBUFFALO +12.75 · LEANLEAN HIT
TotalOVER 46.75 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
