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WK 1 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED THU 1:15 PM ET

Week 1 · 2026 season

New Mexico State @ Florida State

The final score and published grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, AUG 29 · FINAL · DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUM
New Mexico State0-04%
Florida State0-096%
NMSUNATL RANKFSU
127th
Model Overall
47th
132nd
Model Offense
29th
88th
Model Defense
68th
1.2
Pace
-1.5
24%
Returning PPA
40%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total53.5
Model total53.0

Market cadence

Line movement

Line history begins with the preserved opener.

RATINGS AS OF: NMSU wk 1 · FSU wk 1

Model margin
Florida State by 33.25
Opening line
New Mexico State +29
Latest line
New Mexico State +31
Close total
53.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

NMSU17
FINALDoak Campbell Stadium
FSU34
  • WinFlorida StateWIN HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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