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WK 5 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:02 AM ET

Week 5 · 2026 season

UTEP @ New Mexico

OVER 48.25 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · UNIVERSITY STADIUM (NM)
UTEP1-33%
New Mexico3-197%
UTEPNATL RANKUNM
135th
Model Overall
69th
131st
Model Offense
95th
125th
Model Defense
48th
-2.5
Pace
-5.4
-1%
Returning PPA
58%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total51.0
Model total52.1
OVER 48.25 · EDGE WIN

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: UTEP +23.25 · No signal

+21+22+23+24Open11:02 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:03 AMSat11:05 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET

UTEP line
+23.25
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; UTEP line +21.75; producer tier EDGE
  • Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; UTEP line +22.5; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; UTEP line +22.75; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; UTEP line +22.5; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; UTEP line +22.5; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; UTEP line +23.25; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: UTEP wk 5 · UNM wk 5

Model margin
New Mexico by 24.17
Opening line
UTEP +21.75
Latest line
UTEP +23.25
Close total
47.8

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

UTEP7
FINALUniversity Stadium (NM)
UNM61
  • WinNew MexicoWIN HIT
  • TotalOVER 48.25 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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