TEXAS STATE +6.25 · EDGE win; UNDER 71.25 · LEAN win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, NOV 7 · FINAL · RESER STADIUM
Texas State4-441%
Oregon State5-359%
TXSTNATL RANKORST
38th
Model Overall
118th
17th
Model Offense
126th
74th
Model Defense
86th
1.7
Pace
0.2
76%
Returning PPA
58%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total68.8
Model total64.0
TEXAS STATE +6.25 · EDGE WINUNDER 71.25 · LEAN WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Texas State +6.25 · EDGE
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Fri, Nov 6, 11:04:00 AM ET
Texas State line
+6.25
Producer tier
EDGE
Tue, Nov 3, 11:03:35 AM ET; Texas State line +7.5; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Nov 3, 11:03:35 AM ET; Texas State line +6.5; producer tier EDGE
Wed: no capture.
Thu, Nov 5, 11:03:36 AM ET; Texas State line +6.25; producer tier EDGE
Fri, Nov 6, 11:04:00 AM ET; Texas State line +6.25; producer tier EDGE
Sat: no capture.
RATINGS AS OF: TXST wk 10 · ORST wk 10
Model margin
Oregon State by 4.51
Opening line
Texas State +7.5
Latest line
Texas State +4.75
Close total
72.0
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
TXST42
FINALReser Stadium
ORST21
WinOregon StateWIN MISS
ATSTEXAS STATE +6.25 · EDGEEDGE HIT
TotalUNDER 71.25 · LEANLEAN HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
