Published signals: TEXAS STATE -13.5 · EDGE; UNDER 61.25 · EDGE.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 24 · 7:30 PM ET · BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)
Utah State2-415%
Texas State3-385%
USUNATL RANKTXST
87th
Model Overall
38th
71st
Model Offense
17th
100th
Model Defense
74th
-1.5
Pace
1.7
65%
Returning PPA
76%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total58.8
Model total56.9
TEXAS STATE -13.5 · EDGEUNDER 61.25 · EDGE
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Utah State +13.5 · EDGE
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Fri, Oct 23, 11:03:33 AM ET
Utah State line
+13.5
Producer tier
EDGE
Tue, Oct 20, 11:03:15 AM ET; Utah State line +10.5; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Oct 20, 11:03:15 AM ET; Utah State line +12.75; producer tier No signal
Wed, Oct 21, 11:04:05 AM ET; Utah State line +13.5; producer tier EDGE
Thu, Oct 22, 11:03:59 AM ET; Utah State line +13.5; producer tier EDGE
Fri, Oct 23, 11:03:33 AM ET; Utah State line +13.5; producer tier EDGE
Sat: no capture.
RATINGS AS OF: USU wk 8 · TXST wk 8
Model margin
Texas State by 15.98
Opening line
Utah State +10.5
Latest line
Utah State +13.5
Close total
61.3
ATS
TEXAS STATE -13.5 · EDGE
Total pick
UNDER 61.25 · EDGE
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
