SAN DIEGO STATE +9.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · SNAPDRAGON STADIUM
Texas State2-266%
San Diego State1-334%
TXSTNATL RANKSDSU
38th
Model Overall
61st
17th
Model Offense
109th
74th
Model Defense
25th
1.7
Pace
-2.7
76%
Returning PPA
99%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total59.5
Model total58.2
SAN DIEGO STATE +9.5 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Texas State -9.5 · EDGE
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET
Texas State line
-9.5
Producer tier
EDGE
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Texas State line -4.25; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Texas State line -4.25; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; Texas State line -4.25; producer tier No signal
Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; Texas State line -7.25; producer tier EDGE
Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; Texas State line -8.0; producer tier EDGE
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; Texas State line -9.5; producer tier EDGE
RATINGS AS OF: TXST wk 5 · SDSU wk 5
Model margin
Texas State by 1.30
Opening line
Texas State -4.25
Latest line
Texas State -9.75
Close total
57.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
TXST29
FINALSnapdragon Stadium
SDSU31
WinTexas StateWIN MISS
ATSSAN DIEGO STATE +9.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
