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WK 2 · 2026KICK SAT, SEP 12 3:30 PM ETOPENER CAPTURED THU 7:02 AM ET

Week 2 · 2026 season

UTSA @ Texas State

Published signal: UNDER 66.25 · EDGE.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 12 · 3:30 PM ET · BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)
UTSA1-061%
Texas State0-139%
UTSANATL RANKTXST
50th
Model Overall
38th
58th
Model Offense
17th
47th
Model Defense
74th
0.6
Pace
1.7
67%
Returning PPA
76%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total64.5
Model total58.4
UNDER 66.25 · EDGE

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: UTSA +1.75 · No signal

+1+2+3Open5:03 PMTue3:55 PMWed9:26 PMThu11:02 AMFri11:02 AMSatNo data
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Fri, Sep 11, 11:02:26 AM ET

UTSA line
+1.75
Producer tier
No signal
  • Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; UTSA line +1.5; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 8, 3:55:36 PM ET; UTSA line +1.5; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 9, 9:26:03 PM ET; UTSA line +1.5; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 10, 11:02:28 AM ET; UTSA line +1.75; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 11, 11:02:26 AM ET; UTSA line +1.75; producer tier No signal
  • Sat: no capture.

RATINGS AS OF: UTSA wk 2 · TXST wk 2

Model margin
UTSA by 4.21
Opening line
UTSA +1.5
Latest line
UTSA +1.75
Close total
66.3
ATS
UTSA +1.75
Total pick
UNDER 66.25 · EDGE
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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