UTSA +2.5 · EDGE win; UNDER 66.25 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 12 · FINAL · BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)
UTSA1-061%
Texas State0-139%
UTSANATL RANKTXST
50th
Model Overall
38th
58th
Model Offense
17th
47th
Model Defense
74th
0.6
Pace
1.7
67%
Returning PPA
76%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total64.5
Model total58.4
UTSA +2.5 · EDGE WINUNDER 66.25 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: UTSA +2.5 · EDGE
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 12, 11:03:07 AM ET
UTSA line
+2.5
Producer tier
EDGE
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; UTSA line +1.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 8, 3:55:36 PM ET; UTSA line +1.5; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 9, 9:26:03 PM ET; UTSA line +1.5; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 10, 11:02:28 AM ET; UTSA line +1.75; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 11, 11:02:26 AM ET; UTSA line +1.75; producer tier No signal
Sat, Sep 12, 11:03:07 AM ET; UTSA line +2.5; producer tier EDGE
RATINGS AS OF: UTSA wk 2 · TXST wk 2
Model margin
UTSA by 4.21
Opening line
UTSA +1.5
Latest line
UTSA +1.5
Close total
65.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
UTSA31
FINALBobcat Stadium (TX)
TXST26
WinUTSAWIN HIT
ATSUTSA +2.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
TotalUNDER 66.25 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
