MICHIGAN STATE +16.5 · EDGE win; OVER 39.75 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, NOV 7 · FINAL · MICHIGAN STADIUM
Michigan State2-611%
Michigan5-389%
MSUNATL RANKMICH
58th
Model Overall
56th
45th
Model Offense
60th
62nd
Model Defense
52nd
-4.2
Pace
-3.0
21%
Returning PPA
69%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total50.5
Model total45.4
MICHIGAN STATE +16.5 · EDGE WINOVER 39.75 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Michigan State +14.25 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Fri, Nov 6, 11:04:00 AM ET
Michigan State line
+14.25
Producer tier
No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Michigan State line +16.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Nov 3, 11:03:35 AM ET; Michigan State line +13.5; producer tier No signal
Wed: no capture.
Thu, Nov 5, 11:03:36 AM ET; Michigan State line +13.5; producer tier No signal
Fri, Nov 6, 11:04:00 AM ET; Michigan State line +14.25; producer tier No signal
Sat: no capture.
RATINGS AS OF: MSU wk 10 · MICH wk 10
Model margin
Michigan by 12.88
Opening line
Michigan State +16.5
Latest line
Michigan State +14
Close total
39.8
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
MSU15
FINALMichigan Stadium
MICH6
WinMichiganWIN MISS
ATSMICHIGAN STATE +16.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
TotalOVER 39.75 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
