PENN STATE -2.25 · EDGE loss; UNDER 58.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 10 · FINAL · BEAVER STADIUM
USC5-156%
Penn State3-244%
USCNATL RANKPSU
33rd
Model Overall
13th
15th
Model Offense
14th
65th
Model Defense
28th
-3.1
Pace
-4.6
59%
Returning PPA
8%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total56.5
Model total53.9
PENN STATE -2.25 · EDGE LOSSUNDER 58.5 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: USC +2.25 · EDGE
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 10, 11:04:52 AM ET
USC line
+2.25
Producer tier
EDGE
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; USC line +1.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Oct 6, 11:03:29 AM ET; USC line +1.25; producer tier EDGE
Wed, Oct 7, 11:03:15 AM ET; USC line +1.5; producer tier No signal
Thu, Oct 8, 11:03:23 AM ET; USC line +1.5; producer tier No signal
Fri, Oct 9, 11:03:49 AM ET; USC line +2.0; producer tier No signal
Sat, Oct 10, 11:04:52 AM ET; USC line +2.25; producer tier EDGE
RATINGS AS OF: USC wk 6 · PSU wk 6
Model margin
Penn State by 5.21
Opening line
USC +1.5
Latest line
USC -0.25
Close total
54.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
USC31
FINALBeaver Stadium
PSU23
WinUSCWIN HIT
ATSPENN STATE -2.25 · EDGEEDGE MISS
TotalUNDER 58.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
