OVER 43.25 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · CAMP RANDALL STADIUM
Michigan State2-225%
Wisconsin3-175%
MSUNATL RANKWIS
58th
Model Overall
68th
45th
Model Offense
110th
62nd
Model Defense
34th
-4.2
Pace
-8.7
21%
Returning PPA
31%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total44.5
Model total45.1
OVER 43.25 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Michigan State +8.75 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET
Michigan State line
+8.75
Producer tier
No signal
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Michigan State line +10.25; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Michigan State line +10.25; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; Michigan State line +10.0; producer tier No signal
Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; Michigan State line +10.0; producer tier No signal
Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; Michigan State line +9.75; producer tier No signal
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; Michigan State line +8.75; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: MSU wk 5 · WIS wk 5
Model margin
Wisconsin by 7.27
Opening line
Michigan State +10.25
Latest line
Michigan State +8.75
Close total
43.3
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
MSU3
FINALCamp Randall Stadium
WIS31
WinWisconsinWIN HIT
TotalOVER 43.25 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
