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WK 5 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED THU 11:02 AM ET

Week 5 · 2026 season

Penn State @ Northwestern

OVER 45.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.

The verdict

FRI, OCT 2 · FINAL · RYAN FIELD
Penn State3-157%
Northwestern2-143%
PSUNATL RANKNU
13th
Model Overall
67th
14th
Model Offense
69th
28th
Model Defense
57th
-4.6
Pace
-3.4
8%
Returning PPA
89%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total48.5
Model total49.0
OVER 45.5 · EDGE WIN

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Penn State -2.75 · No signal

-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1Open11:02 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:03 AMSatNo data
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET

Penn State line
-2.75
Producer tier
No signal
  • Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Penn State line -7.0; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Penn State line -3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; Penn State line -2.75; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; Penn State line -3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; Penn State line -2.75; producer tier No signal
  • Sat: no capture.

RATINGS AS OF: PSU wk 5 · NU wk 5

Model margin
Penn State by 3.08
Opening line
Penn State -7
Latest line
Penn State -2.75
Close total
46.8

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

PSU13
FINALRyan Field
NU34
  • WinPenn StateWIN MISS
  • TotalOVER 45.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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