IOWA +13.75 · EDGE loss; OVER 44.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · KINNICK STADIUM
Ohio State3-183%
Iowa4-017%
OSUNATL RANKIOWA
5th
Model Overall
16th
9th
Model Offense
46th
3rd
Model Defense
8th
-4.8
Pace
-6.9
68%
Returning PPA
34%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total44.5
Model total45.9
IOWA +13.75 · EDGE LOSSOVER 44.5 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Ohio State -14.25 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET
Ohio State line
-14.25
Producer tier
No signal
Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Ohio State line -14.0; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Ohio State line -13.75; producer tier EDGE
Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; Ohio State line -14.25; producer tier No signal
Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; Ohio State line -14.5; producer tier No signal
Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; Ohio State line -14.25; producer tier No signal
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; Ohio State line -14.25; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: OSU wk 5 · IOWA wk 5
Model margin
Ohio State by 7.77
Opening line
Ohio State -14
Latest line
Ohio State -14.25
Close total
46.0
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
OSU31
FINALKinnick Stadium
IOWA14
WinOhio StateWIN HIT
ATSIOWA +13.75 · EDGEEDGE MISS
TotalOVER 44.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
