FRI, SEP 4 · FINAL · LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM
Fresno State0-06%
USC0-094%
FRESNATL RANKUSC
63rd
Model Overall
33rd
115th
Model Offense
15th
22nd
Model Defense
65th
-1.9
Pace
-3.1
38%
Returning PPA
59%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total51.5
Model total48.5
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Fresno State +22.0 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET
Fresno State line
+22.0
Producer tier
No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Fresno State line +23.25; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 1, 9:06:03 AM ET; Fresno State line +22.0; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 2, 7:02:07 AM ET; Fresno State line +22.0; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 3, 7:02:06 AM ET; Fresno State line +22.0; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Fresno State line +22.0; producer tier No signal
Sat: no capture.
RATINGS AS OF: FRES wk 1 · USC wk 1
Model margin
USC by 19.48
Opening line
Fresno State +23.25
Latest line
Fresno State +21.5
Close total
51.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
FRES0
FINALLos Angeles Memorial Coliseum
USC39
WinUSCWIN HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
