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WK 1 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED THU 1:15 PM ET

Week 1 · 2026 season

Ball State @ AP rank 1Ohio State

The final score and published grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 5 · FINAL · OHIO STADIUM
Ball State0-00%
Ohio State0-0100%
BALLNATL RANKOSU
131st
Model Overall
5th
134th
Model Offense
9th
99th
Model Defense
3rd
-4.7
Pace
-4.8
6%
Returning PPA
68%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total56.5
Model total54.9

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Ball State +50.25 · No signal

+49+50+51+52Open5:03 PMTue9:06 AMWed7:02 AMThu7:02 AMFri5:03 PMSat7:02 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Sep 5, 7:02:53 AM ET

Ball State line
+50.25
Producer tier
No signal
  • Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Ball State line +50.0; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 1, 9:06:03 AM ET; Ball State line +50.75; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 2, 7:02:07 AM ET; Ball State line +50.75; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 3, 7:02:06 AM ET; Ball State line +50.75; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Ball State line +50.25; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Sep 5, 7:02:53 AM ET; Ball State line +50.25; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: BALL wk 1 · OSU wk 1

Model margin
Ohio State by 49.55
Opening line
Ball State +50
Latest line
Ball State +50.5
Close total
55.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

BALL3
FINALOhio Stadium
OSU56
  • WinOhio StateWIN HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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