Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Toledo line +10.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 1, 9:06:03 AM ET; Toledo line +9.5; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 2, 7:02:07 AM ET; Toledo line +9.5; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 3, 7:02:06 AM ET; Toledo line +10.0; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Toledo line +10.25; producer tier No signal
Sat: no capture.
RATINGS AS OF: TOL wk 1 · MSU wk 1
Model margin
Michigan State by 6.55
Opening line
Toledo +10.5
Latest line
Toledo +10
Close total
48.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
TOL20
FINALSpartan Stadium
MSU30
WinMichigan StateWIN HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
