PITTSBURGH -3.75 · EDGE loss; OVER 46.75 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 10 · FINAL · ACRISURE STADIUM
North Carolina2-222%
Pittsburgh5-078%
UNCNATL RANKPITT
95th
Model Overall
24th
90th
Model Offense
66th
97th
Model Defense
9th
-6.0
Pace
0.4
28%
Returning PPA
40%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total47.0
Model total53.4
PITTSBURGH -3.75 · EDGE LOSSOVER 46.75 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: North Carolina +3.75 · EDGE
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 10, 11:04:52 AM ET
North Carolina line
+3.75
Producer tier
EDGE
Tue, Oct 6, 11:03:29 AM ET; North Carolina line +4.0; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Oct 6, 11:03:29 AM ET; North Carolina line +4.0; producer tier EDGE
Wed, Oct 7, 11:03:15 AM ET; North Carolina line +3.75; producer tier EDGE
Thu, Oct 8, 11:03:23 AM ET; North Carolina line +3.75; producer tier EDGE
Fri, Oct 9, 11:03:49 AM ET; North Carolina line +3.75; producer tier EDGE
Sat, Oct 10, 11:04:52 AM ET; North Carolina line +3.75; producer tier EDGE
RATINGS AS OF: UNC wk 6 · PITT wk 6
Model margin
Pittsburgh by 11.29
Opening line
North Carolina +4
Latest line
North Carolina +3.5
Close total
47.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
UNC21
FINALAcrisure Stadium
PITT17
WinPittsburghWIN MISS
ATSPITTSBURGH -3.75 · EDGEEDGE MISS
TotalOVER 46.75 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
