FLORIDA STATE +2.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUM
Virginia3-149%
Florida State2-251%
UVANATL RANKFSU
40th
Model Overall
47th
88th
Model Offense
29th
14th
Model Defense
68th
3.5
Pace
-1.5
10%
Returning PPA
40%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total51.5
Model total51.6
FLORIDA STATE +2.5 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Virginia -1.25 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET
Virginia line
-1.25
Producer tier
No signal
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Virginia line -2.0; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Virginia line -2.75; producer tier EDGE
Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; Virginia line -2.75; producer tier EDGE
Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; Virginia line -2.75; producer tier EDGE
Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; Virginia line -2.5; producer tier EDGE
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; Virginia line -1.25; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: UVA wk 5 · FSU wk 5
Model margin
Florida State by 1.79
Opening line
Virginia -2
Latest line
Virginia -1.25
Close total
51.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
UVA7
FINALDoak Campbell Stadium
FSU38
WinFlorida StateWIN HIT
ATSFLORIDA STATE +2.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
