AP rank 3Notre Dame @ North Carolina

NORTH CAROLINA +21 · EDGE win; UNDER 55.5 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · KENAN STADIUM

Notre Dame4-098%

North Carolina2-12%

NDNATL RANKUNC

2nd

Model Overall

95th

3rd

Model Offense

90th

5th

Model Defense

97th

-4.8

Pace

-6.0

51%

Returning PPA

28%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total55.5

Model total49.0

NORTH CAROLINA +21 · EDGE WINUNDER 55.5 · EDGE LOSS

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Notre Dame -21.0 · EDGE

Edge
Lean
No signal

Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET

Notre Dame line: -21.0
Producer tier: EDGE

Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Notre Dame line -23.5; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Notre Dame line -21.0; producer tier EDGE
Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; Notre Dame line -21.0; producer tier EDGE
Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; Notre Dame line -21.0; producer tier EDGE
Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; Notre Dame line -21.5; producer tier EDGE
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; Notre Dame line -21.0; producer tier EDGE

RATINGS AS OF: ND wk 5 · UNC wk 5

Model margin: Notre Dame by 16.83
Opening line: Notre Dame -23.5
Latest line: Notre Dame -21
Close total: 46.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

ND37

FINALKenan Stadium

UNC26

WinNotre DameWIN HIT
ATSNORTH CAROLINA +21 · EDGEEDGE HIT
TotalUNDER 55.5 · EDGEEDGE MISS

Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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