NC STATE +3.5 · EDGE win; UNDER 59.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · CARTER-FINLEY STADIUM
Louisville2-247%
NC State2-253%
LOUNATL RANKNCSU
26th
Model Overall
43rd
38th
Model Offense
35th
31st
Model Defense
49th
-3.2
Pace
-4.5
35%
Returning PPA
60%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total59.5
Model total55.5
NC STATE +3.5 · EDGE WINUNDER 59.5 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Louisville -3.0 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET
Louisville line
-3.0
Producer tier
No signal
Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Louisville line -7.5; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Louisville line -5.5; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; Louisville line -3.75; producer tier EDGE
Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; Louisville line -3.5; producer tier EDGE
Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; Louisville line -3.5; producer tier EDGE
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; Louisville line -3.0; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: LOU wk 5 · NCSU wk 5
Model margin
NC State by 0.61
Opening line
Louisville -7.5
Latest line
Louisville -4.25
Close total
57.0
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
LOU28
FINALCarter-Finley Stadium
NCSU31
WinNC StateWIN HIT
ATSNC STATE +3.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
TotalUNDER 59.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
