SAT, SEP 12 · FINAL · MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)
Duke1-035%
Illinois1-065%
DUKENATL RANKILL
49th
Model Overall
46th
16th
Model Offense
51st
102nd
Model Defense
45th
-0.0
Pace
-3.5
17%
Returning PPA
21%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total53.5
Model total53.1
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Duke +6.0 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 12, 11:03:07 AM ET
Duke line
+6.0
Producer tier
No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Duke line +8.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 8, 3:55:36 PM ET; Duke line +5.75; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 9, 9:26:03 PM ET; Duke line +5.75; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 10, 11:02:28 AM ET; Duke line +5.75; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 11, 11:02:26 AM ET; Duke line +5.5; producer tier No signal
Sat, Sep 12, 11:03:07 AM ET; Duke line +6.0; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: DUKE wk 2 · ILL wk 2
Model margin
Illinois by 4.99
Opening line
Duke +8.5
Latest line
Duke +6.25
Close total
51.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
DUKE31
FINALMemorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
ILL27
WinIllinoisWIN MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
