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WK 1 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED THU 1:15 PM ET

Week 1 · 2026 season

AP rank 19SMU @ Florida State

The final score and published grades are below.

The verdict

MON, SEP 7 · FINAL · DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUM
SMU0-057%
Florida State0-043%
SMUNATL RANKFSU
11th
Model Overall
47th
7th
Model Offense
29th
27th
Model Defense
68th
-1.3
Pace
-1.5
57%
Returning PPA
40%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total52.5
Model total51.3

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: SMU -3.0 · No signal

-4-3-2Open5:03 PMTue9:06 AMWed7:02 AMThu7:02 AMFri5:03 PMSat7:02 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Sep 5, 7:02:53 AM ET

SMU line
-3.0
Producer tier
No signal
  • Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; SMU line -2.5; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 1, 9:06:03 AM ET; SMU line -3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 2, 7:02:07 AM ET; SMU line -3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 3, 7:02:06 AM ET; SMU line -3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; SMU line -3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Sep 5, 7:02:53 AM ET; SMU line -3.0; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: SMU wk 1 · FSU wk 1

Model margin
SMU by 0.79
Opening line
SMU -2.5
Latest line
SMU -3
Close total
54.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

SMU27
FINALDoak Campbell Stadium
FSU24
  • WinSMUWIN HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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