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WK 5 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:02 AM ET

Week 5 · 2026 season

UCF @ AP rank 20Houston

The final score and published grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · TDECU STADIUM
UCF3-116%
Houston3-184%
UCFNATL RANKHOU
78th
Model Overall
70th
83rd
Model Offense
47th
60th
Model Defense
87th
-2.6
Pace
0.4
25%
Returning PPA
81%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total51.5
Model total52.0

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: UCF +10.5 · No signal

+10+11+12+13Open11:02 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:03 AMSat11:05 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET

UCF line
+10.5
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; UCF line +12.0; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; UCF line +12.5; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; UCF line +12.25; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; UCF line +11.75; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; UCF line +11.25; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; UCF line +10.5; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: UCF wk 5 · HOU wk 5

Model margin
Houston by 10.82
Opening line
UCF +12
Latest line
UCF +10.5
Close total
50.8

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

UCF17
FINALTDECU Stadium
HOU27
  • WinHoustonWIN HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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