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WK 5 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:02 AM ET

Week 5 · 2026 season

Baylor @ Arizona State

The final score and published grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · MOUNTAIN AMERICA STADIUM
Baylor3-148%
Arizona State2-152%
BAYNATL RANKASU
65th
Model Overall
53rd
50th
Model Offense
94th
66th
Model Defense
26th
4.5
Pace
1.4
60%
Returning PPA
16%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total51.0
Model total51.1

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Baylor +3.75 · No signal

+3+4+5Open11:02 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:03 AMSat11:05 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET

Baylor line
+3.75
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Baylor line +3.5; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Baylor line +4.0; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; Baylor line +4.0; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; Baylor line +4.0; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; Baylor line +3.75; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; Baylor line +3.75; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: BAY wk 5 · ASU wk 5

Model margin
Arizona State by 2.64
Opening line
Baylor +3.5
Latest line
Baylor +3.5
Close total
49.0

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

BAY55
FINALMountain America Stadium
ASU19
  • WinArizona StateWIN MISS
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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