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WK 2 · 2026KICK SAT, SEP 12 7:30 PM ETOPENER CAPTURED THU 1:15 PM ET

Week 2 · 2026 season

Iowa State @ AP rank 21Iowa

Published signal: OVER 41.25 · EDGE.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 12 · 7:30 PM ET · KINNICK STADIUM
Iowa State1-021%
Iowa1-079%
ISUNATL RANKIOWA
51st
Model Overall
16th
70th
Model Offense
46th
44th
Model Defense
8th
-0.4
Pace
-6.9
2%
Returning PPA
34%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total41.5
Model total44.4
OVER 41.25 · EDGE

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Iowa State +14.0 · No signal

+11+12+13+14+15Open5:03 PMTue3:55 PMWed9:26 PMThu11:02 AMFri11:02 AMSatNo data
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Fri, Sep 11, 11:02:26 AM ET

Iowa State line
+14.0
Producer tier
No signal
  • Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Iowa State line +11.5; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 8, 3:55:36 PM ET; Iowa State line +14.0; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 9, 9:26:03 PM ET; Iowa State line +14.0; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 10, 11:02:28 AM ET; Iowa State line +14.0; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 11, 11:02:26 AM ET; Iowa State line +14.0; producer tier No signal
  • Sat: no capture.

RATINGS AS OF: ISU wk 2 · IOWA wk 2

Model margin
Iowa by 16.73
Opening line
Iowa State +11.5
Latest line
Iowa State +14
Close total
41.3
ATS
Iowa -14
Total pick
OVER 41.25 · EDGE
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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