OVER 41.25 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 12 · FINAL · KINNICK STADIUM
Iowa State1-021%
Iowa1-079%
ISUNATL RANKIOWA
51st
Model Overall
16th
70th
Model Offense
46th
44th
Model Defense
8th
-0.4
Pace
-6.9
2%
Returning PPA
34%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total41.5
Model total44.4
OVER 41.25 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Iowa State +14.0 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 12, 11:03:07 AM ET
Iowa State line
+14.0
Producer tier
No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Iowa State line +11.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 8, 3:55:36 PM ET; Iowa State line +14.0; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 9, 9:26:03 PM ET; Iowa State line +14.0; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 10, 11:02:28 AM ET; Iowa State line +14.0; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 11, 11:02:26 AM ET; Iowa State line +14.0; producer tier No signal
Sat, Sep 12, 11:03:07 AM ET; Iowa State line +14.0; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: ISU wk 2 · IOWA wk 2
Model margin
Iowa by 16.73
Opening line
Iowa State +11.5
Latest line
Iowa State +14
Close total
42.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
ISU13
FINALKinnick Stadium
IOWA16
WinIowaWIN HIT
TotalOVER 41.25 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
