SAT, AUG 29 · FINAL · AVIVA STADIUM · NEUTRAL SITE
North Carolina0-032%
TCU0-068%
UNCNATL RANKTCU
95th
Model Overall
37th
90th
Model Offense
43rd
97th
Model Defense
43rd
-6.0
Pace
0.0
28%
Returning PPA
22%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total50.5
Model total48.6
Market cadence
Line movement
Line history begins with the preserved opener.
RATINGS AS OF: UNC wk 1 · TCU wk 1
Model margin
TCU by 8.35
Opening line
North Carolina +7.5
Latest line
North Carolina +7.5
Close total
46.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
UNC15
FINALAviva Stadium
TCU10
WinTCUWIN MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.