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WK 10 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:03 AM ET

Week 10 · 2026 season

Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State

OVER 48.5 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 7 · FINAL · DAVIS WADE STADIUM
Vanderbilt3-547%
Mississippi State4-453%
VANNATL RANKMSST
7th
Model Overall
72nd
1st
Model Offense
55th
71st
Model Defense
80th
-5.7
Pace
1.9
35%
Returning PPA
34%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total48.5
Model total52.3
OVER 48.5 · EDGE LOSS

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Vanderbilt +3.0 · No signal

+2+3+4Open11:03 AMTue11:03 AMWedNo dataThu11:03 AMFri11:04 AMSatNo data
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Fri, Nov 6, 11:04:00 AM ET

Vanderbilt line
+3.0
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Nov 3, 11:03:35 AM ET; Vanderbilt line +3.25; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Nov 3, 11:03:35 AM ET; Vanderbilt line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Wed: no capture.
  • Thu, Nov 5, 11:03:36 AM ET; Vanderbilt line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Nov 6, 11:04:00 AM ET; Vanderbilt line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Sat: no capture.

RATINGS AS OF: VAN wk 10 · MSST wk 10

Model margin
Mississippi State by 1.07
Opening line
Vanderbilt +3.25
Latest line
Vanderbilt +3
Close total
48.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

VAN25
FINALDavis Wade Stadium
MSST23
  • WinMississippi StateWIN MISS
  • TotalOVER 48.5 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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