UNDER 60.25 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 3 · FINAL · DAVIS WADE STADIUM
Alabama4-068%
Mississippi State4-032%
ALANATL RANKMSST
21st
Model Overall
72nd
44th
Model Offense
55th
15th
Model Defense
80th
-3.7
Pace
1.9
26%
Returning PPA
34%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total58.5
Model total56.2
UNDER 60.25 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Alabama -5.5 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET
Alabama line
-5.5
Producer tier
No signal
Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Alabama line -3.0; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 29, 11:02:35 AM ET; Alabama line -6.0; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 30, 11:02:58 AM ET; Alabama line -6.0; producer tier No signal
Thu, Oct 1, 11:02:37 AM ET; Alabama line -5.5; producer tier No signal
Fri, Oct 2, 11:03:06 AM ET; Alabama line -5.75; producer tier No signal
Sat, Oct 3, 11:05:51 AM ET; Alabama line -5.5; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: ALA wk 5 · MSST wk 5
Model margin
Alabama by 6.02
Opening line
Alabama -3
Latest line
Alabama -5.5
Close total
62.0
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
ALA56
FINALDavis Wade Stadium
MSST23
WinAlabamaWIN HIT
TotalUNDER 60.25 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
