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WK 1 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED THU 1:15 PM ET

Week 1 · 2026 season

UL Monroe @ Mississippi State

The final score and published grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 5 · FINAL · DAVIS WADE STADIUM
UL Monroe0-04%
Mississippi State0-096%
ULMNATL RANKMSST
117th
Model Overall
72nd
128th
Model Offense
55th
84th
Model Defense
80th
-6.1
Pace
1.9
39%
Returning PPA
34%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total55.5
Model total57.0

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: UL Monroe +28.5 · No signal

+27+28+29+30Open5:03 PMTue9:06 AMWed7:02 AMThu7:02 AMFri5:03 PMSat7:02 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Sep 5, 7:02:53 AM ET

UL Monroe line
+28.5
Producer tier
No signal
  • Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; UL Monroe line +28.5; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 1, 9:06:03 AM ET; UL Monroe line +28.5; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 2, 7:02:07 AM ET; UL Monroe line +28.5; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 3, 7:02:06 AM ET; UL Monroe line +28.5; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; UL Monroe line +28.5; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Sep 5, 7:02:53 AM ET; UL Monroe line +28.5; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: ULM wk 1 · MSST wk 1

Model margin
Mississippi State by 30.62
Opening line
UL Monroe +28.5
Latest line
UL Monroe +28.5
Close total
54.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

ULM13
FINALDavis Wade Stadium
MSST62
  • WinMississippi StateWIN HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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