UNDER 61.75 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 17 · FINAL · M. M. ROBERTS STADIUM
Arkansas State2-461%
Southern Miss1-439%
ARSTNATL RANKUSM
122nd
Model Overall
98th
127th
Model Offense
104th
94th
Model Defense
92nd
3.7
Pace
0.3
30%
Returning PPA
90%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total58.5
Model total57.1
UNDER 61.75 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Arkansas State -6.25 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET
Arkansas State line
-6.25
Producer tier
No signal
Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Arkansas State line -7.0; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Arkansas State line -7.0; producer tier No signal
Wed, Oct 14, 11:03:17 AM ET; Arkansas State line -7.0; producer tier No signal
Thu, Oct 15, 11:02:56 AM ET; Arkansas State line -7.0; producer tier No signal
Fri, Oct 16, 11:03:04 AM ET; Arkansas State line -6.5; producer tier No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET; Arkansas State line -6.25; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: ARST wk 7 · USM wk 7
Model margin
Arkansas State by 1.23
Opening line
Arkansas State -7
Latest line
Arkansas State -6
Close total
61.8
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
ARST23
FINALM. M. Roberts Stadium
USM13
WinArkansas StateWIN HIT
TotalUNDER 61.75 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
