BUFFALO -7 · LEAN push; OVER 41.5 · LEAN win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 17 · FINAL · UB STADIUM
Massachusetts4-215%
Buffalo3-385%
MASSNATL RANKBUF
138th
Model Overall
111th
136th
Model Offense
125th
138th
Model Defense
77th
-4.0
Pace
0.6
-57%
Returning PPA
-1%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total46.3
Model total50.3
BUFFALO -7 · LEAN PUSHOVER 41.5 · LEAN WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Massachusetts +7.0 · LEAN
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET
Massachusetts line
+7.0
Producer tier
LEAN
Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Massachusetts line +3.25; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Massachusetts line +6.25; producer tier LEAN
Wed, Oct 14, 11:03:17 AM ET; Massachusetts line +6.25; producer tier LEAN
Thu, Oct 15, 11:02:56 AM ET; Massachusetts line +6.25; producer tier LEAN
Fri, Oct 16, 11:03:04 AM ET; Massachusetts line +7.0; producer tier LEAN
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET; Massachusetts line +7.0; producer tier LEAN
RATINGS AS OF: MASS wk 7 · BUF wk 7
Model margin
Buffalo by 16.13
Opening line
Massachusetts +3.25
Latest line
Massachusetts +6.75
Close total
43.0
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
MASS18
FINALUB Stadium
BUF25
WinBuffaloWIN HIT
ATSBUFFALO -7 · LEANLEAN PUSH
TotalOVER 41.5 · LEANLEAN HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
