NEVADA +5.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 26 · FINAL · MACKAY STADIUM
Air Force1-156%
Nevada1-244%
AFNATL RANKNEV
125th
Model Overall
109th
52nd
Model Offense
118th
137th
Model Defense
98th
-1.1
Pace
-5.8
57%
Returning PPA
36%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total48.8
Model total51.1
NEVADA +5.5 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Air Force -5.5 · EDGE
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET
Air Force line
-5.5
Producer tier
EDGE
Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Air Force line -4.25; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Air Force line -5.5; producer tier EDGE
Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; Air Force line -5.5; producer tier EDGE
Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Air Force line -5.5; producer tier EDGE
Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; Air Force line -5.5; producer tier EDGE
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET; Air Force line -5.5; producer tier EDGE
RATINGS AS OF: AF wk 4 · NEV wk 4
Model margin
Nevada by 1.51
Opening line
Air Force -4.25
Latest line
Air Force -5.25
Close total
50.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
AF36
FINALMackay Stadium
NEV33
WinAir ForceWIN HIT
ATSNEVADA +5.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
