OVER 48.75 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 26 · FINAL · DOYT L. PERRY STADIUM
South Florida3-096%
Bowling Green0-34%
USFNATL RANKBGSU
34th
Model Overall
133rd
25th
Model Offense
135th
51st
Model Defense
106th
1.6
Pace
-3.9
13%
Returning PPA
-6%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total50.5
Model total52.0
OVER 48.75 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: South Florida -18.25 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET
South Florida line
-18.25
Producer tier
No signal
Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; South Florida line -16.5; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; South Florida line -17.5; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; South Florida line -17.5; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; South Florida line -17.5; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; South Florida line -17.75; producer tier No signal
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET; South Florida line -18.25; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: USF wk 4 · BGSU wk 4
Model margin
South Florida by 29.51
Opening line
South Florida -16.5
Latest line
South Florida -17.75
Close total
48.8
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
USF14
FINALDoyt L. Perry Stadium
BGSU6
WinSouth FloridaWIN HIT
TotalOVER 48.75 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
