TEXAS STATE -12.5 · LEAN win; UNDER 70.5 · LEAN loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
THU, OCT 15 · FINAL · BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)
Colorado State2-39%
Texas State2-391%
CSUNATL RANKTXST
124th
Model Overall
38th
105th
Model Offense
17th
131st
Model Defense
74th
-5.0
Pace
1.7
40%
Returning PPA
76%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total67.5
Model total63.5
TEXAS STATE -12.5 · LEAN WINUNDER 70.5 · LEAN LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Colorado State +14.25 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Thu, Oct 15, 11:02:56 AM ET
Colorado State line
+14.25
Producer tier
No signal
Sat, Oct 10, 11:04:52 AM ET; Colorado State line +12.5; producer tier LEAN
Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Colorado State line +14.0; producer tier No signal
Wed, Oct 14, 11:03:17 AM ET; Colorado State line +14.25; producer tier No signal
Thu, Oct 15, 11:02:56 AM ET; Colorado State line +14.25; producer tier No signal
Fri: no capture.
Sat: no capture.
RATINGS AS OF: CSU wk 7 · TXST wk 7
Model margin
Texas State by 18.05
Opening line
Colorado State +12.5
Latest line
Colorado State +15.25
Close total
69.8
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
CSU27
FINALBobcat Stadium (TX)
TXST66
WinTexas StateWIN HIT
ATSTEXAS STATE -12.5 · LEANLEAN HIT
TotalUNDER 70.5 · LEANLEAN MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
