SAN DIEGO STATE +7.25 · EDGE win; OVER 45.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 17 · FINAL · SNAPDRAGON STADIUM
Fresno State4-263%
San Diego State2-437%
FRESNATL RANKSDSU
63rd
Model Overall
61st
115th
Model Offense
109th
22nd
Model Defense
25th
-1.9
Pace
-2.7
38%
Returning PPA
99%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total44.3
Model total48.8
SAN DIEGO STATE +7.25 · EDGE WINOVER 45.5 · EDGE WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Fresno State -7.25 · EDGE
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET
Fresno State line
-7.25
Producer tier
EDGE
Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Fresno State line -8.25; producer tier No signal
Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Fresno State line -7.5; producer tier EDGE
Wed, Oct 14, 11:03:17 AM ET; Fresno State line -7.5; producer tier EDGE
Thu, Oct 15, 11:02:56 AM ET; Fresno State line -7.5; producer tier EDGE
Fri, Oct 16, 11:03:04 AM ET; Fresno State line -7.5; producer tier EDGE
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET; Fresno State line -7.25; producer tier EDGE
RATINGS AS OF: FRES wk 7 · SDSU wk 7
Model margin
Fresno State by 3.74
Opening line
Fresno State -8.25
Latest line
Fresno State -6.75
Close total
46.0
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
FRES23
FINALSnapdragon Stadium
SDSU26
WinFresno StateWIN MISS
ATSSAN DIEGO STATE +7.25 · EDGEEDGE HIT
TotalOVER 45.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
