Downfield DataGamesGet the board
WK 4 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:02 AM ET

Week 4 · 2026 season

Oregon State @ UTEP

UTEP +10.75 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 26 · FINAL · SUN BOWL
Oregon State1-281%
UTEP1-219%
ORSTNATL RANKUTEP
118th
Model Overall
135th
126th
Model Offense
131st
86th
Model Defense
125th
0.2
Pace
-2.5
58%
Returning PPA
-1%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total54.8
Model total55.0
UTEP +10.75 · EDGE LOSS

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Oregon State -11.5 · No signal

-13-12-11-10Open11:02 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:02 AMSat11:04 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET

Oregon State line
-11.5
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Oregon State line -11.75; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Oregon State line -10.5; producer tier EDGE
  • Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; Oregon State line -10.5; producer tier EDGE
  • Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Oregon State line -10.5; producer tier EDGE
  • Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; Oregon State line -10.75; producer tier EDGE
  • Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET; Oregon State line -11.5; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: ORST wk 4 · UTEP wk 4

Model margin
Oregon State by 7.99
Opening line
Oregon State -11.75
Latest line
Oregon State -11.5
Close total
56.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

ORST33
FINALSun Bowl
UTEP7
  • WinOregon StateWIN HIT
  • ATSUTEP +10.75 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

Back to the week 4 board