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WK 4 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:02 AM ET
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Week 4 · 2026 season

Troy @ Utah State

OVER 47.5 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 26 · FINAL · MAVERIK STADIUM
Troy2-153%
Utah State0-347%
TROYNATL RANKUSU
96th
Model Overall
87th
129th
Model Offense
71st
46th
Model Defense
100th
-2.1
Pace
-1.5
35%
Returning PPA
65%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total50.8
Model total51.0
OVER 47.5 · EDGE LOSS

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Troy +3.0 · No signal

+2+3+4Open11:02 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:02 AMSat11:04 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET

Troy line
+3.0
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Troy line +2.5; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Troy line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; Troy line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Troy line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; Troy line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET; Troy line +3.0; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: TROY wk 4 · USU wk 4

Model margin
Troy by 1.16
Opening line
Troy +2.5
Latest line
Troy +3
Close total
47.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

TROY10
FINALMaverik Stadium
USU21
  • WinTroyWIN MISS
  • TotalOVER 47.5 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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