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WK 4 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:02 AM ET

Week 4 · 2026 season

San Diego State @ Toledo

The final score and published grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 26 · FINAL · GLASS BOWL
San Diego State1-247%
Toledo2-153%
SDSUNATL RANKTOL
61st
Model Overall
31st
109th
Model Offense
61st
25th
Model Defense
19th
-2.7
Pace
-2.5
99%
Returning PPA
66%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total48.8
Model total50.2

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: San Diego State +2.75 · No signal

0+1+2+3+4Open11:02 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:02 AMSat11:04 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET

San Diego State line
+2.75
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; San Diego State line +0.5; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; San Diego State line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; San Diego State line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; San Diego State line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; San Diego State line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET; San Diego State line +2.75; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: SDSU wk 4 · TOL wk 4

Model margin
Toledo by 3.48
Opening line
San Diego State +0.5
Latest line
San Diego State +2.75
Close total
50.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

SDSU16
FINALGlass Bowl
TOL41
  • WinToledoWIN HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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