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WK 4 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:02 AM ET

Week 4 · 2026 season

Rice @ Fresno State

OVER 43.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 26 · FINAL · VALLEY CHILDREN'S STADIUM
Rice1-26%
Fresno State2-194%
RICENATL RANKFRES
136th
Model Overall
63rd
137th
Model Offense
115th
118th
Model Defense
22nd
-4.4
Pace
-1.9
39%
Returning PPA
38%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total44.0
Model total45.4
OVER 43.5 · EDGE WIN

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Rice +13.25 · No signal

+12+13+14+15Open11:02 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:02 AMSat11:04 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET

Rice line
+13.25
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Rice line +13.75; producer tier LEAN
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Rice line +13.5; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; Rice line +13.5; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Rice line +13.5; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; Rice line +13.5; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET; Rice line +13.25; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: RICE wk 4 · FRES wk 4

Model margin
Fresno State by 23.18
Opening line
Rice +13.75
Latest line
Rice +12.25
Close total
43.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

RICE24
FINALValley Children's Stadium
FRES38
  • WinFresno StateWIN HIT
  • TotalOVER 43.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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