Downfield DataGamesGet the board
WK 3 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED MON 8:35 AM ET

Week 3 · 2026 season

North Texas @ Texas State

The final score and published grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 19 · FINAL · BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)
North Texas1-148%
Texas State0-252%
UNTNATL RANKTXST
41st
Model Overall
38th
5th
Model Offense
17th
111th
Model Defense
74th
1.6
Pace
1.7
3%
Returning PPA
76%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total63.5
Model total61.2

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: North Texas +3.0 · No signal

+2+3+4Open8:35 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:02 AMSat11:03 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET

North Texas line
+3.0
Producer tier
No signal
  • Mon, Sep 14, 8:35:15 AM ET; North Texas line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 15, 11:02:28 AM ET; North Texas line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 16, 11:02:15 AM ET; North Texas line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 17, 11:02:43 AM ET; North Texas line +3.0; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 18, 11:02:12 AM ET; North Texas line +2.5; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET; North Texas line +3.0; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: UNT wk 3 · TXST wk 3

Model margin
Texas State by 4.79
Opening line
North Texas +3
Latest line
North Texas +3
Close total
62.5

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

UNT35
FINALBobcat Stadium (TX)
TXST49
  • WinTexas StateWIN HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

Back to the week 3 board