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WK 7 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:03 AM ET

Week 7 · 2026 season

AP rank 25Northwestern @ Michigan State

OVER 48.5 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 17 · FINAL · SPARTAN STADIUM
Northwestern4-179%
Michigan State2-421%
NUNATL RANKMSU
67th
Model Overall
58th
69th
Model Offense
45th
57th
Model Defense
62nd
-3.4
Pace
-4.2
89%
Returning PPA
21%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total48.0
Model total51.5
OVER 48.5 · EDGE LOSS

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Northwestern -7.0 · No signal

-9-8-7-6Open11:03 AMTue11:03 AMWed11:03 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:03 AMSat11:04 AM
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET

Northwestern line
-7.0
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Northwestern line -8.5; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Northwestern line -7.5; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Oct 14, 11:03:17 AM ET; Northwestern line -7.75; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Oct 15, 11:02:56 AM ET; Northwestern line -7.25; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Oct 16, 11:03:04 AM ET; Northwestern line -7.0; producer tier No signal
  • Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET; Northwestern line -7.0; producer tier No signal

RATINGS AS OF: NU wk 7 · MSU wk 7

Model margin
Northwestern by 9.45
Opening line
Northwestern -8.5
Latest line
Northwestern -7.25
Close total
50.3

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

NU24
FINALSpartan Stadium
MSU21
  • WinNorthwesternWIN HIT
  • TotalOVER 48.5 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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