PENN STATE +6.5 · EDGE win; OVER 42.75 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, OCT 17 · FINAL · MICHIGAN STADIUM
Penn State3-327%
Michigan3-273%
PSUNATL RANKMICH
13th
Model Overall
56th
14th
Model Offense
60th
28th
Model Defense
52nd
-4.6
Pace
-3.0
8%
Returning PPA
69%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total51.5
Model total48.1
PENN STATE +6.5 · EDGE WINOVER 42.75 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Penn State +6.0 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET
Penn State line
+6.0
Producer tier
No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Penn State line +6.5; producer tier EDGE
Tue, Oct 13, 11:03:28 AM ET; Penn State line +6.5; producer tier No signal
Wed, Oct 14, 11:03:17 AM ET; Penn State line +6.5; producer tier No signal
Thu, Oct 15, 11:02:56 AM ET; Penn State line +7.0; producer tier No signal
Fri, Oct 16, 11:03:04 AM ET; Penn State line +6.75; producer tier No signal
Sat, Oct 17, 11:04:55 AM ET; Penn State line +6.0; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: PSU wk 7 · MICH wk 7
Model margin
Michigan by 4.90
Opening line
Penn State +6.5
Latest line
Penn State +6
Close total
43.3
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
PSU18
FINALMichigan Stadium
MICH21
WinMichiganWIN HIT
ATSPENN STATE +6.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
TotalOVER 42.75 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
