OREGON +2.5 · EDGE win; UNDER 62.5 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 26 · FINAL · LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM
Oregon2-157%
USC4-043%
ORENATL RANKUSC
9th
Model Overall
33rd
8th
Model Offense
15th
16th
Model Defense
65th
-2.5
Pace
-3.1
75%
Returning PPA
59%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total58.5
Model total55.9
OREGON +2.5 · EDGE WINUNDER 62.5 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Oregon -3.5 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET
Oregon line
-3.5
Producer tier
No signal
Fri, Sep 4, 5:03:41 PM ET; Oregon line -5.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Oregon line -3.0; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; Oregon line -3.0; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Oregon line -3.0; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; Oregon line -3.0; producer tier No signal
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET; Oregon line -3.5; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: ORE wk 4 · USC wk 4
Model margin
Oregon by 3.65
Opening line
Oregon -5.5
Latest line
Oregon -3.5
Close total
60.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
ORE41
FINALLos Angeles Memorial Coliseum
USC27
WinOregonWIN HIT
ATSOREGON +2.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
TotalUNDER 62.5 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
