UNDER 54.25 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 26 · FINAL · OHIO STADIUM
Illinois2-16%
Ohio State2-194%
ILLNATL RANKOSU
46th
Model Overall
5th
51st
Model Offense
9th
45th
Model Defense
3rd
-3.5
Pace
-4.8
21%
Returning PPA
68%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total54.5
Model total48.8
UNDER 54.25 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Illinois +25.75 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET
Illinois line
+25.75
Producer tier
No signal
Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET; Illinois line +27.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Illinois line +27.25; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; Illinois line +26.75; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Illinois line +26.75; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; Illinois line +26.75; producer tier No signal
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET; Illinois line +25.75; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: ILL wk 4 · OSU wk 4
Model margin
Ohio State by 26.86
Opening line
Illinois +27.5
Latest line
Illinois +25.5
Close total
53.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
ILL19
FINALOhio Stadium
OSU42
WinOhio StateWIN HIT
TotalUNDER 54.25 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
