IOWA +4.5 · LEAN win; OVER 38.5 · LEAN win. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 26 · FINAL · MICHIGAN STADIUM
Iowa3-053%
Michigan3-047%
IOWANATL RANKMICH
16th
Model Overall
56th
46th
Model Offense
60th
8th
Model Defense
52nd
-6.9
Pace
-3.0
34%
Returning PPA
69%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total39.5
Model total42.8
IOWA +4.5 · LEAN WINOVER 38.5 · LEAN WIN
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Iowa +5.25 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET
Iowa line
+5.25
Producer tier
No signal
Fri, Sep 18, 11:02:12 AM ET; Iowa line +4.5; producer tier LEAN
Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Iowa line +5.5; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; Iowa line +5.5; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Iowa line +5.5; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; Iowa line +5.5; producer tier No signal
Sat, Sep 26, 11:04:31 AM ET; Iowa line +5.25; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: IOWA wk 4 · MICH wk 4
Model margin
Michigan by 0.10
Opening line
Iowa +4.5
Latest line
Iowa +4.75
Close total
39.8
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
IOWA20
FINALMichigan Stadium
MICH19
WinIowaWIN HIT
ATSIOWA +4.5 · LEANLEAN HIT
TotalOVER 38.5 · LEANLEAN HIT
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
