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WK 4 · 2026FINALOPENER CAPTURED TUE 11:02 AM ET

Week 4 · 2026 season

Northwestern @ AP rank 5Indiana

OVER 49.5 · EDGE win. The full grades are below.

The verdict

FRI, SEP 25 · FINAL · MEMORIAL STADIUM (BLOOMINGTON, IN)
Northwestern2-08%
Indiana3-092%
NUNATL RANKIU
67th
Model Overall
1st
69th
Model Offense
2nd
57th
Model Defense
7th
-3.4
Pace
-3.2
89%
Returning PPA
17%

Color marks the better value in each row.

Open total48.8
Model total53.2
OVER 49.5 · EDGE WIN

Market cadence

Line movement

Latest: Northwestern +20.25 · No signal

+19+20+21+22+23Open11:02 AMTue11:02 AMWed11:02 AMThu11:02 AMFri11:02 AMSatNo data
  • Edge
  • Lean
  • No signal

Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET

Northwestern line
+20.25
Producer tier
No signal
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Northwestern line +22.5; producer tier No signal
  • Tue, Sep 22, 11:02:45 AM ET; Northwestern line +20.75; producer tier No signal
  • Wed, Sep 23, 11:02:22 AM ET; Northwestern line +20.75; producer tier No signal
  • Thu, Sep 24, 11:02:22 AM ET; Northwestern line +20.75; producer tier No signal
  • Fri, Sep 25, 11:02:48 AM ET; Northwestern line +20.25; producer tier No signal
  • Sat: no capture.

RATINGS AS OF: NU wk 4 · IU wk 4

Model margin
Indiana by 21.56
Opening line
Northwestern +22.5
Latest line
Northwestern +20.25
Close total
49.8

Graded model opinions

Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.

NU23
FINALMemorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
IU29
  • WinIndianaWIN HIT
  • TotalOVER 49.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.

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