OVER 51.75 · EDGE loss. The full grades are below.
The verdict
SAT, SEP 19 · FINAL · NOTRE DAME STADIUM
Michigan State2-02%
Notre Dame2-098%
MSUNATL RANKND
58th
Model Overall
2nd
45th
Model Offense
3rd
62nd
Model Defense
5th
-4.2
Pace
-4.8
21%
Returning PPA
51%
Color marks the better value in each row.
Open total53.5
Model total55.3
OVER 51.75 · EDGE LOSS
Market cadence
Line movement
Latest: Michigan State +29.25 · No signal
◆Edge
▲Lean
○No signal
Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET
Michigan State line
+29.25
Producer tier
No signal
Sat, Sep 12, 9:40:13 AM ET; Michigan State line +29.5; producer tier No signal
Tue, Sep 15, 11:02:28 AM ET; Michigan State line +29.75; producer tier No signal
Wed, Sep 16, 11:02:15 AM ET; Michigan State line +29.75; producer tier No signal
Thu, Sep 17, 11:02:43 AM ET; Michigan State line +29.75; producer tier No signal
Fri, Sep 18, 11:02:12 AM ET; Michigan State line +29.75; producer tier No signal
Sat, Sep 19, 11:03:28 AM ET; Michigan State line +29.25; producer tier No signal
RATINGS AS OF: MSU wk 3 · ND wk 3
Model margin
Notre Dame by 29.38
Opening line
Michigan State +29.5
Latest line
Michigan State +28.75
Close total
51.5
Graded model opinions
Every published Lean and Edge grades against its locked selected line. ATS and total results remain independent.
MSU10
FINALNotre Dame Stadium
ND27
WinNotre DameWIN HIT
TotalOVER 51.75 · EDGEEDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
